$62k Bitcoin, did you cut your losses?
First look at the surface: it has fallen for almost a year, and the market is in despair.
Bitcoin dropped from its October 2025 high, retracing about 50%. Weekly -5.88%, monthly -18.62%, year-to-date -28.7%. The price is stuck in the $62k-$64k range, looking fragile.
Historically, a 50% retracement after a halving bull market is standard. It happened in 2017, and again in 2021. This time is the "most gentle."
First thing: ETFs are running, but who is catching?
GBTC leads the decline, ETF net outflows continue this week, retail investors are scared and hurriedly place sell orders and run away.
But look closely at on-chain data: long-term holders (LTH) hold 79% of the supply, and haven't moved.
The same script as late 2022 — retail selling, whales eating, MicroStrategy still buying.
Second thing: The Fed is hawkish, but the market is already numb.
June meeting, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75%, dot plot hawkish: inflation forecast raised, hinting at possibly one or more rate hikes by year-end.
Once the news came out, Bitcoin was hammered from 64k down to 62k.
But pay attention to a detail: the decline is getting smaller.
New Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting was hawkish, market pricing already includes the worst expectations. Once inflation data softens, rate cut expectations will reignite, and Bitcoin will be the first to take off.
Third thing: The candlestick chart gave the final card.
Daily chart shows: a symmetrical triangle formed over months, breaking down in a bear market.
$62k-$62,500 was tested repeatedly, three times without breaking.
This is called a triple bottom. In technical analysis, it's one of the most classic bottom structures. RSI and moving averages are neutral, no oversold or overbought, but volume is increasing during the decline — selling pressure is depleting.
Key level: $62k, just $2,000 away from the critical 60k line.
Resistance above: $64,500 → $67,000 (key) → $70,000+
Support below: $62k → $60k → $58,000 (final line of defense)
Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself.
One side is:
Long-term holders hold 79%, unmoved
MicroStrategy and other companies keep buying
Supply dries up after halving, scarcity increases over time
$62k tested three times without breaking, forming a triple bottom
Historically, after a 50% retracement, there’s usually a big rebound
The other side is:
ETF outflows continue, institutions retreat short-term
Hawkish Fed, possible rate hikes by year-end
YTD loss of 28%, trend still bearish
Long-term security concerns about quantum computing
Short-term traders:
Light long positions at $62,300-$62,500, stop-loss at $61,800. First target $65,000-$67,000, leverage within 3x, don’t be greedy.
Mid-to-long-term players:
Add positions in batches around $62k, with strong support at $60k-$62k. Use DCA to invest weekly, don’t go all-in at once. Target $80k-$100k+.
Risk management:
Total position no more than 20-40%.
If it breaks below $62k, wait and see; below $60k, start buying.
Don’t borrow money, don’t hold heavy futures positions, staying alive is more important than anything.
Bitcoin now is like the end of 2022 —
Everyone was shouting "Bitcoin will go to zero," but three months later, it rose from 16k to 30k, doubling.
Every bull market quietly starts when most people are in despair. #我的Gate交易时刻 #Gate直通韩股股票 $BTC $ETH $SOL
