Ignore the noise from news and the post-hoc comments. Use cycle mathematics to dissect the complete market trend of 2026—this is the most authentic market law. **Early February: The Prelude to Collapse** The market is already at its breaking point. The signs of exhaustion are evident from Bitcoin’s shrinking volume to new highs and Litecoin’s stall at the hundred-dollar mark. The crash in early February originated from a sudden breakdown in supply and demand. This kind of "spontaneous stampede" has occurred many times in history. **May to August: The Dull Downtrend Period** Next comes a four-month liquidity vacuum. Each rebound is weaker than the last, and each low point continues to probe lower. During this downward cycle, bottoming out is like catching a falling knife—it looks cheap but is actually dangerous. **October: The Iron Bottom of the Four-Year Cycle** This month, aligned with historical patterns, will bring the most severe retracement of 2026. Bitcoin may find its bottom around $50,000, while Ethereum might bottom near $1,800. This is not just a price decline but a ruthless liquidation of leverage positions across the entire market. **Core Logic** All current prosperity is borrowed and will ultimately need to be repaid in October, including principal and interest. Exiting in February sets the stage; October is the real opportunity to build positions.

Whether Ethereum can hold steady at the 3300 level is crucial. As long as 3300 doesn't break, a rebound is not a problem. Friends entering long positions at this price level don't need to panic too much; just control the risk. Stop-loss when necessary, reduce positions when needed. If 3300 is truly maintained, there will definitely be a wave of upward exploration. There's no need to be greedy; doing thorough research is the most important.

Crypto investing doesn't have to be nerve-wracking. Whether you're diving into Bitcoin, Ethereum, or exploring DeFi opportunities, the key is keeping a level head and not letting market volatility get to you. Take it from someone who's been through the cycles—staying calm through the ups and downs makes all the difference. Your portfolio will thank you.