CEO Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, announced on X that the company does not list direct payout betting markets based on death and has designed rules to prevent users from profiting from events related to mortality.
Regarding the “Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death” market, Kalshi stated it will refund all trading fees and close open positions at the last trading price before 1:14 a.m. EST — the time of the first attack.
For positions opened after his death, the platform will refund 100%. Mansour emphasized that no users incur losses in this market to ensure fairness and compliance with the platform’s operational principles.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Polymarket account deposits $2,000 to bet on crude oil reaching $120 before the end of March
On March 19th, a profitable account on prediction market Polymarket placed a $2,000 bet that crude oil will reach $120 by the end of March, with a current probability of 25%. Additionally, on March 18th, Israel's military strikes on Iranian oil facilities prompted a statement from Trump, stating that the U.S. was not aware of this. Meanwhile, the U.S. launched a strategic petroleum reserve release plan of 172 million barrels.
GateNews33m ago
3 Smart Money Accounts on Polymarket Invested $9,400 Betting on New Country Attack Iran Before April
On March 19, 3 accounts on Polymarket invested $9,400 betting on "whether there will be a new national attack on Iran before April," with the current probability at 24%. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister and the UK government have responded to this, condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf states.
GateNews1h ago
Quant Funds Flood Prediction Markets: Six Major Models Exposed, Polymarket Trading Strategies Enter Professionalization Phase
As institutional investors and quantitative funds enter prediction markets, the industry structure is undergoing transformation. In 2026, prediction market trading volume surpassed $13.7 billion, with quantitative strategies gradually becoming mainstream, employing sophisticated financial models to achieve stable returns. Core methodologies include LMSR, Kelly Criterion, and Bayesian updating, with technical implementation focusing on data quality and execution efficiency. Retail investors struggle to replicate institutional advantages without model capabilities.
GateNews1h ago
Prediction Markets Shift Collectively: Iran Conflict May Prolonged, Bitcoin and Inflation Face Intensified Pressure
Due to tensions in the Middle East, short-term ceasefire expectations have declined, affecting global inflation and interest rates, and putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysis suggests that high oil prices and high interest rates will continue to suppress the crypto market, with future market trends closely tied to geopolitical developments.
GateNews1h ago
A certain historical prediction 11 consecutive winning address invested $40,000, betting that the US and Iran will not reach a ceasefire before 4.15
On March 19, Gate News reported that monitoring shows an address on Polymarket deposited $40,000 betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran before April 15, with the current probability of negation at 80%. Trump warned Iran that if it attacks Qatar again, the US will take stronger action and is considering deploying an additional thousand American troops. Meanwhile, the trader's behavior suggests they are not only betting on the event but may also have profit-taking and stop-loss strategies in place.
GateNews1h ago
A certain Smart Money address invested $12,000, betting that Ukraine will not give up joining NATO this year
On Polymarket, an address placed a $12,000 bet that Ukraine will not join NATO this year, with a 69% winning probability. Despite U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire, the Ukrainian government faces public pressure to abandon NATO membership aspirations, making compromise difficult.
GateNews2h ago
